It's over. We're now supposed to ruminate over our vote. Traditionally this would be called a crisis election. The incumbent always wins big during crises (not the case overseas). There was no election budget - there were four. The Opposition could not use huge rallies to rouse the electorate. Instead, both sides had to reach out online, which some voters described as easier to hear from all candidates. Instead, the Opposition hammered PAP's handling of the pandemic, sometimes excessively, yet with little pushback. A pandemic response once of national pride is now characterised as an international joke. Finally, a virtual election that should have favoured the incumbent has plugged more voters to the internet, a medium where PAP is inferior.
Given all the factors, I honestly do not know where the vote will swing, but I'll be surprised if PAP adds to the 70% of 2015. We're in a crisis, yes, but that year also had a lot of goodwill. Most of all, I expect the threat of a wipeout to influence voters.
Some incoherent points:
PSP did not dilute the WP's reputation as the only credible opposition party. It added another strong player on the political spectrum. What would we give to have Tan Cheng Bock, Pritam Singh, Low Thia Khiang and Chiam See Tong in the same era.
Will Aljunied fall? It might very well be. In 2015, in the shadow of the AHTC saga, WP won by a meagre 2%. Since then, they've been found guilty and icon Low Thia Khiang has exited. Notice how PAP had its foot on the neck and could have finished the job by redeploying a heavyweight here, but did not. It was a calculated move. The only thing that can save WP now is, again, the threat of a wipeout.
The only reason Tan Cheng Bock is running in West Coast is Ayer Rajah. If he had taken advice to leave GRCs alone, given his national popularity, he would have trounced PAP in most SMCs (Patrick Tay? Melvin Yong? Henry Kwek?). Wasted.
Will West Coast flip? It'll be dramatic, but I doubt it. Chiam See Tong couldn't capture a GRC in a sweet election, and PSP's team is basically Tan Cheng Bock.
Sengkang has been that plot twist people love. Sure, it was all along a "battleground" because it's new and WP has presence there, but make no mistake, WP sent its Team D there. If you follow politics, Team B is in East Coast and the Marine Parade squad can argue it's Team C. The profile of the Sengkang team, based on the party's past strategy, tells us it's more for the future. But suddenly, Team D is now Team B. Everybody loves Jamus Lim and Raeesah Khan. The counterweight of Ng Chee Meng, Lam Pin Min, Amrin Amin and Raymond Lye also happens to be not that weighty. Mouth-watering.
While Chee Soon Juan and SDP have rehabilitated their image for years, their recent electoral outings proved they're not nearly there yet. With that said, Chee has gone on the attack against a shaky Murali and watch this space for he might sneak into parliament as best losers - then the real drama begins.
Similarly, smart move to drop Paul Tambyah in an SMC. Bukit Panjang should be tight.
I'll have an eye on Marymount and Yio Chu Kang. Not much has been discussed about them and they're historically safe districts, but they're only the second and third time PAP fielded a new candidate alone. The first, in Fengshan, turned out to be one of the tightest contests.
Lastly, we should not be mocking Heng Swee Keat's unfortunate speech. If he's certain to be our PM, we should be rallying around him.
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