Oscars 2016 predictions

Best Picture
will win: The Big Short
should win: The Martian or Bridge of Spies. this award is judged on production; i judge it on totality. The Martian and Bridge of Spies were the most entertaining films of the year.

Best Director
will win: Alejandro G Inarritu, The Revenant
should win: apart from Adam McKay, everyone deserves it. the lengths Inarritu went to shoot his epic. the orchestrated chaos of Mad Max: Fury Road. Tom McCarthy elicited consistently strong performances from an ensemble cast and made a film that's hard to dislike. Room could be half as good in another director's hands.

Best Actor
will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
should win: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl. many thespians probably can play a woman. Redmayne played a man with hints of a woman who becomes a woman knowing she's still a man - with all the complexities and subtleties in between. DiCaprio's performance seemed externally induced; Redmayne's was internalised. in drama school we consider the latter superior.

Best Actress
will win: Brie Larson, Room
should win: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy. i knocked on her Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle acclaim. but here, she's really really good. magnum opus, if you like.

Best Supporting Actor
will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
should win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies. once in a while a non-lead consumes a film through sheer brilliance, à la Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) and Francis Ng (Infernal Affairs 2).

Best Supporting Actress
will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
should win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl. a role as complex as Redmayne's (Rooney Mara would have a chance if her eyes weren't so distracting).

Best Original Screenplay
will win: Spotlight
should win: Bridge of Spies. both are by far the best, but Spotlight loses out a little by having the actual reportage as reference.

Best Adapted Screenplay
will win: The Big Short
should win: The Big Short

i like motion pictures

it's common knowledge i'm not a fan of DiCaprio. many think he's overdue for an Oscar. i think he looks the same in every film, as differently as he tried to look from Titanic to J. Edgar. he was good in Gangs of New York, in Blood Diamond, in Shutter Island, in Django Unchained. he grew into a good actor, but he's not a great actor. when actors are in this limbo, they grab at a role like Hugh Glass. it is painful, it is ugly and it is made for awards. but it doesn't make one a great actor. Redmayne, Fassbender, Cranston - that's acting. if what they did was 2.5 reverse somersaults plus 2.5 twists, DiCaprio's was flinging himself off a 30-metre cliff.