江湖越走 胆子越小

you spend your life getting shook, you learn how to spot a shaker.

Inception 10th anniversary

10 years ago this month. a generational film. see how the title has been appropriated for everyday usage.

GE2020 day 9 thoughts

It's over. We're now supposed to ruminate over our vote. Traditionally this would be called a crisis election. The incumbent always wins big during crises (not the case overseas). There was no election budget - there were four. The Opposition could not use huge rallies to rouse the electorate. Instead, both sides had to reach out online, which some voters described as easier to hear from all candidates. Instead, the Opposition hammered PAP's handling of the pandemic, sometimes excessively, yet with little pushback. A pandemic response once of national pride is now characterised as an international joke. Finally, a virtual election that should have favoured the incumbent has plugged more voters to the internet, a medium where PAP is inferior.

Given all the factors, I honestly do not know where the vote will swing, but I'll be surprised if PAP adds to the 70% of 2015. We're in a crisis, yes, but that year also had a lot of goodwill. Most of all, I expect the threat of a wipeout to influence voters.

Some incoherent points:

PSP did not dilute the WP's reputation as the only credible opposition party. It added another strong player on the political spectrum. What would we give to have Tan Cheng Bock, Pritam Singh, Low Thia Khiang and Chiam See Tong in the same era.

Will Aljunied fall? It might very well be. In 2015, in the shadow of the AHTC saga, WP won by a meagre 2%. Since then, they've been found guilty and icon Low Thia Khiang has exited. Notice how PAP had its foot on the neck and could have finished the job by redeploying a heavyweight here, but did not. It was a calculated move. The only thing that can save WP now is, again, the threat of a wipeout.

The only reason Tan Cheng Bock is running in West Coast is Ayer Rajah. If he had taken advice to leave GRCs alone, given his national popularity, he would have trounced PAP in most SMCs (Patrick Tay? Melvin Yong? Henry Kwek?). Wasted.

Will West Coast flip? It'll be dramatic, but I doubt it. Chiam See Tong couldn't capture a GRC in a sweet election, and PSP's team is basically Tan Cheng Bock.

Sengkang has been that plot twist people love. Sure, it was all along a "battleground" because it's new and WP has presence there, but make no mistake, WP sent its Team D there. If you follow politics, Team B is in East Coast and the Marine Parade squad can argue it's Team C. The profile of the Sengkang team, based on the party's past strategy, tells us it's more for the future. But suddenly, Team D is now Team B. Everybody loves Jamus Lim and Raeesah Khan. The counterweight of Ng Chee Meng, Lam Pin Min, Amrin Amin and Raymond Lye also happens to be not that weighty. Mouth-watering.

While Chee Soon Juan and SDP have rehabilitated their image for years, their recent electoral outings proved they're not nearly there yet. With that said, Chee has gone on the attack against a shaky Murali and watch this space for he might sneak into parliament as best losers - then the real drama begins.

Similarly, smart move to drop Paul Tambyah in an SMC. Bukit Panjang should be tight.

I'll have an eye on Marymount and Yio Chu Kang. Not much has been discussed about them and they're historically safe districts, but they're only the second and third time PAP fielded a new candidate alone. The first, in Fengshan, turned out to be one of the tightest contests.

Lastly, we should not be mocking Heng Swee Keat's unfortunate speech. If he's certain to be our PM, we should be rallying around him.

GE2020 day 7 thoughts

Yes the system is stacked against Opposition. Yes Pofma sucks. And so many other revolting things. But I worry about the public discourse on politics in Singapore. If politics went online in 2011 and 2015 and created echo chambers, 2020 might be the election it takes a hard left. The dominant online sentiment seems to be about being "woke". Like youths around the world, ours want a more progressive society. The PAP IB seems to be losing the battle and PAP should be worried.

Ivan Lim, even if a genuine dick, was shredded like Tin Pei Ling, who went on to be a competent MP. Accusations against other PAP candidates threatened to blow up. But Raeesah Khan, whose social posts were objectively wrong, received a different treatment. PAP white horses and generals, wrong. PAP candidates from humbler backgrounds, wrong. Jamus Lim went to top schools, stanned.

Yes the silent majority still remains a factor, but as more people are connected to the internet and the content flavour shifts, I do wonder about the effects. Yes politics is irrational, but I don't see significant robust policy debate. Even the media: mainstream media have toned down to stay relevant while alternative media have remained spiky. The political status quo in Singapore is horrible, but at what cost will change be?

GE2020 day 6 thoughts

Even as Heng waits to ascend the throne, the nature of PAP's succession policy means the next-next PM, if not already in Parliament, is in the class of 2020.

LKY stepped down as PM at the age of 67. Goh took over in his 4th term and stepped down at 63. Lee junior took over in his 5th term and targets to step down at 68-69, already later than his predecessors. Heng is taking over in only his 3rd term and at the grand old age of 59-60.

There are two paths. Either Heng holds the fort way past 70, which would allow a much younger successor in the 2020 batch to clock at least three full terms. This could mean senior public servants Tan Kiat How, Gan Siow Huang or Yip Hon Weng is a future PM, one of which the first female PM.

Or Heng himself is a transitional PM - too brilliant to overlook but too old to last. This could mean Chan Chun Sing, Ong Ye Kung and Ng Chee Meng still have a chance, or if we go even younger, Lawrence Wong and Desmond Lee.

There is probably no heir presumptive. PAP will test the new candidates because longevity is better, but if none is capable or popular enough, they could very well install Chan, Ong or Wong. That would on hindsight revise Heng as the seat warmer, stretching the runway for his comrades.

GE2020 day 3 thoughts

There's an excellent Opposition argument circulating.

Voting for them does not mean you adore them, nor does it mean you hate PAP. It does not mean you approve of that clownish candidate in your constituency. It does not mean you consider PAP has done badly in the past 5 years. It does not mean you condone the AHTC saga.

It really means if you're wise enough to accept some form of opposition is good for Singapore, what you're voting for is an investment in good opposition in the future. If the Opposition becomes viable, it attracts the kind of good candidates PAP has attracted for decades. It is a virtuous cycle. It really means you're allowed to continue voting PAP only if you believe in a one-party rule.

Your vote should not be a verdict on the standard of the Opposition in a system stacked against them. It should be seen as a powerful enabler to improve the Opposition.

GE2020 day 2 thoughts

Post-LKY PAP hates debates. Politics to them is about pragmatism and results, not ideology and rhetoric.

Unless debate rules are PAP-approved.

Regardless, when I heard Vivian was representing, I thought it was over. He's one of if not the best speakers and responders, and it showed. He's coherent, he's tactical, he has data and he's charismatic.

All the talk after was about Jamus Lim, but I felt underwhelmed. He's charming and intelligent, and did well for a political novice, but overall although he appealed to the hearts he wasn't clear to the heads. Plus, someone needs to tell him even as an economics professor he needs to simplify his words for the general public.

GE2020 day 1 thoughts

No prime minister of Singapore has ever moved out of their constituency, let alone into a supposed hot spot. To be fair, Lee, Goh and Lee probably could as they were very popular, but consolidation in one area and building clout from there was the political wisdom.

Why did Heng do it? Some say it's to rescue East Coast from falling into WP's hands. I think that's the simplistic view. PAP had advance knowledge WP's B team was weakened by a new GRC in Sengkang and the promotion of some members to the A team. East Coast is less risky if anything. If rescue was really the intention, they could've sent Masagos, Indranee or Desmond Lee, and not endanger the crown prince. For me, it was symbolic and optical. The party or Heng wanted to show he could lead a new slate and not be sheltered, but wanted a fight he wouldn't lose so as to accredit his coronation.

Tough luck for Nicole. You can tell WP's strategy is basically stacking it in Aljunied and Hougang. You can call the Sengkang team the B team, or you can say it's carefully curated for the demographics. By both measures, Nicole would have fit into Sengkang, but her star power has been diverted to East Coast, where WP uses as a test bed. She would lose, but she would pick up the NCMP spot. Now that PAP has flashed a trump card who can probably carry a 5% swing in votes, Nicole's fortunes are not so apparent anymore.