A watershed is defined as a turning point, a critical change. The "new normal" referred to a supposedly new state of politics here. Clearly, 2011 is now just a wave of national anger, a protest vote. Not that much an endorsement of the Opposition and certainly not an enlightened democratisation of the people.
Granted, with its talent pool and advantages of the incumbent, the PAP has outperformed everyone else, both in policies (housing, welfare) and politics (ground-up, social media). I had forecast it's likelier Opposition support would fall than rise, because Singaporeans are conditioned to be pragmatic. And against the backdrop of SG50 and LKY there was a serious concern for the future versus the follies of the last decade. My worry over Aljunied was also founded on the simple fact that the biggest issue - AHPETC - would only erode support, impossible the opposite.
The silent majority have spoken. They don't care for ideals, they don't care for citizenry empowerment, they don't care for a balanced parliament.
When the first sample count of Mountbatten came in, it gave me an ominous shiver. How could a returning opponent, known for being a local girl who scored 41% the last time, concede over 70%, well a landslide?
With that, came streaming in seats that moved in sync with the national swing - Ang Mo Kio, Jurong, Pasir Ris-Punggol, Bishan-Toa Payoh, Tanjong Pagar, Sembawang, Nee Soon, Tampines, West Coast, Chua Chu Kang, Jalan Besar, Marsiling-Yew Tee, Radin Mas, Yuhua, Bukit Panjang, Hong Kah North, Pioneer...
Fengshan was touted a hot seat not just for its East Coast connection but as a proxy for party brands, as both PAP and WP sent new candidates. A longtime grassroots leader (un-PAP) versus a lawyer (un-Opposition). So if you thought the WP brand is now as strong as the PAP's, Cheryl Chan's 57% says a lot.
If "sacrifical lamb" Fengshan weren't gonna fall, East Coast sure wouldn't. The fact that WP won Aljunied in 2011 with an all-star team, more probably had to be done to the East Coast team, as credible as they looked. My personal dislike of Lim Swee Say and Lee Yi Shyan was somehow also not shared by voters.
If East Coast weren't gonna fall, Marine Parade sure wouldn't. WP's C team was unnecessarily hyped up and despite Goh Chok Tong's regular PR kamikaze, Tan Chuan-Jin is way too popular. The fact that WP cut 7% off 2011's NSP is particularly damning.
Potong Pasir was a non-story for me as I had forecast an easy win for Sitoh Yih Pin. Anti-establishment fervour there was always built around Chiam See Tong's cult of personality. Lina Chiam is not her husband, period. Sitoh looks like the best PAP man for this neighbourhood, not to mention he turned Potong Pasir residents into rabbits. As Leo said, "once tasted flight, forever look at sky". I think Singaporeans can forever banish to history books whatever "conscience of Singapore" and "my kind of town".
The shocker and disappointment for me was Punggol East. Is Lee Li Lian capable? Only the residents would know. But the fact that she was ousted after winning 54% just two years ago against a man probably more impressive than Charles Chong proves Singaporeans are more fearless in a by-election when nothing's at stake. Voters preferred a retiree over a breath of fresh air. Chong suddenly has a few more years of income, even if he does nothing in Parliament. Ah Lian is now unemployed.
I admire WP's policy to let candidates grow roots, but I felt Sengkang West was ripe for the picking, since the only issue there was unfavourable to the PAP. Maybe a bigger name would've performed better than Koh Choong Yong.
So clearly, the Easties are not as enlightened as we thought, the Potong Pasir kampung is not as dogged, and the Sengkang-Punggolites are not the progressive young families as described.
Another place ripe for the picking but overlooked was Bukit Batok - new place, inexperienced PAP candidate, history of Opposition support. Just imagine David Ong up against Chee Soon Juan or even Tan Jee Say or Benjamin Pwee. In the end most of the better-known non-WP candidates suffered from hubris. Chee's return from the wilderness very unfortunately ran into a national swing.
Kudos to PAP for letting Tin Pei Ling strike out on her own and shame on those who felt she was abandoned by Marine Parade. Tin has done good stuff in MacPherson. WP wanted it simply to flex its muscles in this part of the island. If it were politically opportunistic it wouldn't have dispatched a 29-year-old to challenge an incumbent who four years ago was flamed precisely for her youth.
How one sees WP's defence of Aljunied and Hougang depends on one's school of thought. Hougang showed its resolve, Aljunied survived - but on a whole, you can say both lost support or you can argue both took a conservative hit compared to PAP's national improvement. The question now is will Singapore's bluest precincts continue their slide from WP's grip? The common assumption is when opposition turns white, he seldom turns back.
One of the most incongruous things I heard this GE was PAP's call for votes so as to make the Opposition work harder, instead of the opposite. It was Uniquely Singapore Democracy, but ironically, it might have convinced a few. Indeed, even with a bizarre remark, some people probably identified more with the safety net of the incumbent.
Do Singaporeans in general want to help develop a credible Opposition? I suspect not. Some whine at them for being too quiet or too noisy, without acknowledging the field is not level and you just can't expect an untested Opposition member to be like a polished PAP man. Remember, the political awakening of the late 1980s was snuffed out by 1997 - see what the "mandate" did. Several Opposition members have now expressed Friday's results as demoralising. Let's hope Singaporeans' decision to punish the Opposition does not lead to an exodus. Live with your sacred vote and stfu if things go awry. If you want Hougang and Aljunied to bear the Opposition presence in Parliament, maybe we should rewrite the laws to make MPs only speak for their own constituents.
On the other hand, the government has no doubt resoundingly responded since 2011. If that was the moment PAP forever became sensitive to the people, we're better for it. Why am I willing to say this out loud? Because I can be rational regardless of my badge and I love my country as much as you do. If anyone can, it's the PAP. But more so, because Singapore can.
Granted, with its talent pool and advantages of the incumbent, the PAP has outperformed everyone else, both in policies (housing, welfare) and politics (ground-up, social media). I had forecast it's likelier Opposition support would fall than rise, because Singaporeans are conditioned to be pragmatic. And against the backdrop of SG50 and LKY there was a serious concern for the future versus the follies of the last decade. My worry over Aljunied was also founded on the simple fact that the biggest issue - AHPETC - would only erode support, impossible the opposite.
The silent majority have spoken. They don't care for ideals, they don't care for citizenry empowerment, they don't care for a balanced parliament.
When the first sample count of Mountbatten came in, it gave me an ominous shiver. How could a returning opponent, known for being a local girl who scored 41% the last time, concede over 70%, well a landslide?
With that, came streaming in seats that moved in sync with the national swing - Ang Mo Kio, Jurong, Pasir Ris-Punggol, Bishan-Toa Payoh, Tanjong Pagar, Sembawang, Nee Soon, Tampines, West Coast, Chua Chu Kang, Jalan Besar, Marsiling-Yew Tee, Radin Mas, Yuhua, Bukit Panjang, Hong Kah North, Pioneer...
Fengshan was touted a hot seat not just for its East Coast connection but as a proxy for party brands, as both PAP and WP sent new candidates. A longtime grassroots leader (un-PAP) versus a lawyer (un-Opposition). So if you thought the WP brand is now as strong as the PAP's, Cheryl Chan's 57% says a lot.
If "sacrifical lamb" Fengshan weren't gonna fall, East Coast sure wouldn't. The fact that WP won Aljunied in 2011 with an all-star team, more probably had to be done to the East Coast team, as credible as they looked. My personal dislike of Lim Swee Say and Lee Yi Shyan was somehow also not shared by voters.
If East Coast weren't gonna fall, Marine Parade sure wouldn't. WP's C team was unnecessarily hyped up and despite Goh Chok Tong's regular PR kamikaze, Tan Chuan-Jin is way too popular. The fact that WP cut 7% off 2011's NSP is particularly damning.
Potong Pasir was a non-story for me as I had forecast an easy win for Sitoh Yih Pin. Anti-establishment fervour there was always built around Chiam See Tong's cult of personality. Lina Chiam is not her husband, period. Sitoh looks like the best PAP man for this neighbourhood, not to mention he turned Potong Pasir residents into rabbits. As Leo said, "once tasted flight, forever look at sky". I think Singaporeans can forever banish to history books whatever "conscience of Singapore" and "my kind of town".
The shocker and disappointment for me was Punggol East. Is Lee Li Lian capable? Only the residents would know. But the fact that she was ousted after winning 54% just two years ago against a man probably more impressive than Charles Chong proves Singaporeans are more fearless in a by-election when nothing's at stake. Voters preferred a retiree over a breath of fresh air. Chong suddenly has a few more years of income, even if he does nothing in Parliament. Ah Lian is now unemployed.
I admire WP's policy to let candidates grow roots, but I felt Sengkang West was ripe for the picking, since the only issue there was unfavourable to the PAP. Maybe a bigger name would've performed better than Koh Choong Yong.
So clearly, the Easties are not as enlightened as we thought, the Potong Pasir kampung is not as dogged, and the Sengkang-Punggolites are not the progressive young families as described.
Another place ripe for the picking but overlooked was Bukit Batok - new place, inexperienced PAP candidate, history of Opposition support. Just imagine David Ong up against Chee Soon Juan or even Tan Jee Say or Benjamin Pwee. In the end most of the better-known non-WP candidates suffered from hubris. Chee's return from the wilderness very unfortunately ran into a national swing.
Kudos to PAP for letting Tin Pei Ling strike out on her own and shame on those who felt she was abandoned by Marine Parade. Tin has done good stuff in MacPherson. WP wanted it simply to flex its muscles in this part of the island. If it were politically opportunistic it wouldn't have dispatched a 29-year-old to challenge an incumbent who four years ago was flamed precisely for her youth.
How one sees WP's defence of Aljunied and Hougang depends on one's school of thought. Hougang showed its resolve, Aljunied survived - but on a whole, you can say both lost support or you can argue both took a conservative hit compared to PAP's national improvement. The question now is will Singapore's bluest precincts continue their slide from WP's grip? The common assumption is when opposition turns white, he seldom turns back.
One of the most incongruous things I heard this GE was PAP's call for votes so as to make the Opposition work harder, instead of the opposite. It was Uniquely Singapore Democracy, but ironically, it might have convinced a few. Indeed, even with a bizarre remark, some people probably identified more with the safety net of the incumbent.
Do Singaporeans in general want to help develop a credible Opposition? I suspect not. Some whine at them for being too quiet or too noisy, without acknowledging the field is not level and you just can't expect an untested Opposition member to be like a polished PAP man. Remember, the political awakening of the late 1980s was snuffed out by 1997 - see what the "mandate" did. Several Opposition members have now expressed Friday's results as demoralising. Let's hope Singaporeans' decision to punish the Opposition does not lead to an exodus. Live with your sacred vote and stfu if things go awry. If you want Hougang and Aljunied to bear the Opposition presence in Parliament, maybe we should rewrite the laws to make MPs only speak for their own constituents.
On the other hand, the government has no doubt resoundingly responded since 2011. If that was the moment PAP forever became sensitive to the people, we're better for it. Why am I willing to say this out loud? Because I can be rational regardless of my badge and I love my country as much as you do. If anyone can, it's the PAP. But more so, because Singapore can.
