GE2020 day 6 thoughts

Even as Heng waits to ascend the throne, the nature of PAP's succession policy means the next-next PM, if not already in Parliament, is in the class of 2020.

LKY stepped down as PM at the age of 67. Goh took over in his 4th term and stepped down at 63. Lee junior took over in his 5th term and targets to step down at 68-69, already later than his predecessors. Heng is taking over in only his 3rd term and at the grand old age of 59-60.

There are two paths. Either Heng holds the fort way past 70, which would allow a much younger successor in the 2020 batch to clock at least three full terms. This could mean senior public servants Tan Kiat How, Gan Siow Huang or Yip Hon Weng is a future PM, one of which the first female PM.

Or Heng himself is a transitional PM - too brilliant to overlook but too old to last. This could mean Chan Chun Sing, Ong Ye Kung and Ng Chee Meng still have a chance, or if we go even younger, Lawrence Wong and Desmond Lee.

There is probably no heir presumptive. PAP will test the new candidates because longevity is better, but if none is capable or popular enough, they could very well install Chan, Ong or Wong. That would on hindsight revise Heng as the seat warmer, stretching the runway for his comrades.