Today's the enigmatic Cooling-off Day of what's seemed like a marathon, and I think it's time I consolidate my thoughts.
PAP knows by the end of tomorrow night, they'll form the next government, seats still warm and paychecks still fat. But this GE, or for god knows how long it's been brewing, has exposed PAP for its disconnect with the electorate. For the longest time it skirted issues and repeated the same rhetoric it's sold for half a century. I'm not the seasoned political watcher here but i suspect whatever's the result on Saturday, it's already a watershed. PAP has unprecedentedly been slapped with hard truths and unbelievably apologised. They realised it wasn't the issues or their answers to them that irked Singaporeans. At the core of it is a disconnect fuelled by what seems arrogance, elitism and failure to empathise with the ground.
Spiralling costs of living, influx of foreigners, housing woes, population replenishment... heck even YOG, 50-years-once floods and a certain MSK. Are these truly the problems? Or are they more intimately linked to a citizenry's disillusionment with a government that doesn't seem to care yet isn't accountable? I suspect all the pro-Opposition sentiments online aren't exclusive or a minority, although I might be very wrong. I think this way because much of the sentiments isn't youth-centric or whatnots. They seem reflective, extrapolative. A signal of, like I said, a disconnect that cuts across society.
Education and access to information have become PAP's bane. They no longer can lord over subjects unable to think for themselves. They no longer are the best of the best. They no longer (not a matter of if, but when) have the luxury of history and transformation, a country indebted to them who toiled side-by-side. A generation comes, and a generation goes. They no longer control information the way they prefer.
PAP has doggedly built up education here in its drive for economic prosperity. Yet it understood that intellectuals have always been history's 'troublemakers'. And thus a policy of keeping its educated apathetic. My question is, how long will they stay apathetic?
'Watershed' as described by some, in terms of elected Opposition MPs, might be misleading. Yawning Bread's "morning after" of 86:1 and ST's Chua Mui Hoong's fearsome spectre of 87:0 are well within sight. Low Thia Khiang and Chiam See Tong have no track record whatsoever in GRCs, while this is probably the Opposition's first concerted foray into GRC ground, it's almost like an experiment.
However, I suspect PAP's greatest fear isn't 87:0 or 86:1 that doesn't reflect ground sentiments or the national average. They have enjoyed sustained success for so long and yet still so jealously guard power. They fight hard for seats and continue to seek a strong mandate. Hell, the whole point of upping instant Opposition representation in Parliament to nine is in itself a proud assertion of confidence.
The PAP of today is not the PAP past. That is an accepted truth. The calibre different, the heart might not be the same, the motives suspect. The circumstances have also changed. We're not a slum-infested, poor, uneducated, racially-tense country anymore. The siege mentality is fast losing its effect. You're pounding away with knuckledusters but Singaporeans have been equipped -- by you, no less -- with bulletproof vests and SAR21s.
I think, as long as PAP maintains its stranglehold on politics, Singapore will be fine. They have capable people who are smart enough about self-renewal. Therefore PAP's greatest fear should be an elected Opposition tearing them apart for their inadequacies and shortcomings. If the Opposition gains considerable ground in Parliament, the current PAP, many of them battle noobs, will have to debate and defend agenda they might have previously taken for granted. In Singaporeans' eyes, they will have to live up to the long shadows cast by the Old Guard. The legacy turns back to bite them. If PAP gets hurt more, a vicious cycle ensues. This, is not just detrimental to PAP, but to Singapore as a whole.
Singapore's unique form of democracy indeed favours the ruling party. Because it is democracy that may hurt them most.
After a hotly-contested election period, two scenarios are possible. All depends on the real sentiments on the ground. Discontentment or satisfaction/fear? That will decide the polls. We know the hardliners exist on both ends of the spectrum. The crucial mass of votes however will come from the swing voters.
One, all of social media and typical election fervour is wrong. The dizzying activism was an illusion. 86:1, with Yaw Shin Leong edging Desmond Choo for the one and only Opposition elected seat (although it could very well be a sweep, if word that Choo has gained much progress is true). The 'majority appeal' of PAP means no GRC falls, while the quieter sectors of Potong Pasir go white, as Lina Chiam fails to retain her husband's loyalty.
Two, as opposed to general belief, the quiet middle ground is sympathetic to Opposition, and PAP suffers its worst defeat since independence. My prediction: 16 elected seats to Opposition.
5, Aljunied
5, Bishan-Toa Payoh
4, Holland-Bukit Timah
1, Hougang
1, Potong Pasir
The national average was 66.6% for PAP in 2006. In other words, for every two votes for PAP, another one goes to the Opposition. That's quite spectacular in Singapore terms.
I'll take the plunge and say it'll fall to 60% this time, keeping in mind though it doesn't guarantee anything. Strong Opposition sentiment in some places of, say, 55% should be offset by the numerous PAP GRC strongholds.
Rest of my predictions:
TIGHT
East Coast
Mountbatten, Lim Biow Chuan vs Jeannette Chong-Aruldoss
Pioneer, Cedric Foo vs Steve Chia
EASY
Ang Mo Kio
Jurong
Sembawang
Pasir Ris-Punggol
Moulmein-Kallang
Tampines
Marine Parade
Nee Soon
Chua Chu Kang
West Coast
Joo Chiat
Bukit Panjang
Hong Kah North
Punggol East
Sengkang West
Radin Mas
Whampoa
Yuhua
Remember, in perspective, how many times do you get to vote in a lifetime? And considering the many walkovers the country has seen, limiting some 40-somethings to have never voted before? Considering how issues change with age, how many votes do you have as a young adult, as a middle aged, and as a senior citizen?
Don't be apathetic. Don't be a wimp. Make it count.
Vote wisely. I am not telling you how to vote. As long as you've given it thought, your vote should be respected. This is democracy. But keep in mind your vote is sacred. It should not just reflect municipal issues, but have national interests at heart. We are not, after all, Aljunied or Tampines, Chinese or Malay.
We are Singaporeans.
PAP knows by the end of tomorrow night, they'll form the next government, seats still warm and paychecks still fat. But this GE, or for god knows how long it's been brewing, has exposed PAP for its disconnect with the electorate. For the longest time it skirted issues and repeated the same rhetoric it's sold for half a century. I'm not the seasoned political watcher here but i suspect whatever's the result on Saturday, it's already a watershed. PAP has unprecedentedly been slapped with hard truths and unbelievably apologised. They realised it wasn't the issues or their answers to them that irked Singaporeans. At the core of it is a disconnect fuelled by what seems arrogance, elitism and failure to empathise with the ground.
Spiralling costs of living, influx of foreigners, housing woes, population replenishment... heck even YOG, 50-years-once floods and a certain MSK. Are these truly the problems? Or are they more intimately linked to a citizenry's disillusionment with a government that doesn't seem to care yet isn't accountable? I suspect all the pro-Opposition sentiments online aren't exclusive or a minority, although I might be very wrong. I think this way because much of the sentiments isn't youth-centric or whatnots. They seem reflective, extrapolative. A signal of, like I said, a disconnect that cuts across society.
Education and access to information have become PAP's bane. They no longer can lord over subjects unable to think for themselves. They no longer are the best of the best. They no longer (not a matter of if, but when) have the luxury of history and transformation, a country indebted to them who toiled side-by-side. A generation comes, and a generation goes. They no longer control information the way they prefer.
PAP has doggedly built up education here in its drive for economic prosperity. Yet it understood that intellectuals have always been history's 'troublemakers'. And thus a policy of keeping its educated apathetic. My question is, how long will they stay apathetic?
'Watershed' as described by some, in terms of elected Opposition MPs, might be misleading. Yawning Bread's "morning after" of 86:1 and ST's Chua Mui Hoong's fearsome spectre of 87:0 are well within sight. Low Thia Khiang and Chiam See Tong have no track record whatsoever in GRCs, while this is probably the Opposition's first concerted foray into GRC ground, it's almost like an experiment.
However, I suspect PAP's greatest fear isn't 87:0 or 86:1 that doesn't reflect ground sentiments or the national average. They have enjoyed sustained success for so long and yet still so jealously guard power. They fight hard for seats and continue to seek a strong mandate. Hell, the whole point of upping instant Opposition representation in Parliament to nine is in itself a proud assertion of confidence.
The PAP of today is not the PAP past. That is an accepted truth. The calibre different, the heart might not be the same, the motives suspect. The circumstances have also changed. We're not a slum-infested, poor, uneducated, racially-tense country anymore. The siege mentality is fast losing its effect. You're pounding away with knuckledusters but Singaporeans have been equipped -- by you, no less -- with bulletproof vests and SAR21s.
I think, as long as PAP maintains its stranglehold on politics, Singapore will be fine. They have capable people who are smart enough about self-renewal. Therefore PAP's greatest fear should be an elected Opposition tearing them apart for their inadequacies and shortcomings. If the Opposition gains considerable ground in Parliament, the current PAP, many of them battle noobs, will have to debate and defend agenda they might have previously taken for granted. In Singaporeans' eyes, they will have to live up to the long shadows cast by the Old Guard. The legacy turns back to bite them. If PAP gets hurt more, a vicious cycle ensues. This, is not just detrimental to PAP, but to Singapore as a whole.
Singapore's unique form of democracy indeed favours the ruling party. Because it is democracy that may hurt them most.
After a hotly-contested election period, two scenarios are possible. All depends on the real sentiments on the ground. Discontentment or satisfaction/fear? That will decide the polls. We know the hardliners exist on both ends of the spectrum. The crucial mass of votes however will come from the swing voters.
One, all of social media and typical election fervour is wrong. The dizzying activism was an illusion. 86:1, with Yaw Shin Leong edging Desmond Choo for the one and only Opposition elected seat (although it could very well be a sweep, if word that Choo has gained much progress is true). The 'majority appeal' of PAP means no GRC falls, while the quieter sectors of Potong Pasir go white, as Lina Chiam fails to retain her husband's loyalty.
Two, as opposed to general belief, the quiet middle ground is sympathetic to Opposition, and PAP suffers its worst defeat since independence. My prediction: 16 elected seats to Opposition.
5, Aljunied
5, Bishan-Toa Payoh
4, Holland-Bukit Timah
1, Hougang
1, Potong Pasir
The national average was 66.6% for PAP in 2006. In other words, for every two votes for PAP, another one goes to the Opposition. That's quite spectacular in Singapore terms.
I'll take the plunge and say it'll fall to 60% this time, keeping in mind though it doesn't guarantee anything. Strong Opposition sentiment in some places of, say, 55% should be offset by the numerous PAP GRC strongholds.
Rest of my predictions:
TIGHT
East Coast
Mountbatten, Lim Biow Chuan vs Jeannette Chong-Aruldoss
Pioneer, Cedric Foo vs Steve Chia
EASY
Ang Mo Kio
Jurong
Sembawang
Pasir Ris-Punggol
Moulmein-Kallang
Tampines
Marine Parade
Nee Soon
Chua Chu Kang
West Coast
Joo Chiat
Bukit Panjang
Hong Kah North
Punggol East
Sengkang West
Radin Mas
Whampoa
Yuhua
Remember, in perspective, how many times do you get to vote in a lifetime? And considering the many walkovers the country has seen, limiting some 40-somethings to have never voted before? Considering how issues change with age, how many votes do you have as a young adult, as a middle aged, and as a senior citizen?
Don't be apathetic. Don't be a wimp. Make it count.
Vote wisely. I am not telling you how to vote. As long as you've given it thought, your vote should be respected. This is democracy. But keep in mind your vote is sacred. It should not just reflect municipal issues, but have national interests at heart. We are not, after all, Aljunied or Tampines, Chinese or Malay.
We are Singaporeans.
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